When it comes to fantasy rankings and drafts, we preach individuality. Draft the players you want, not necessarily the guys everyone else says you should take.

That said, we also preach getting a player at the correct time. Just cause you like, say, Darren McFadden an awful lot for 2009 doesn’t mean you should take him in the first or second round. The key is to take that player picks, not rounds, before someone else does.

So how do you know when those “someone elses” will likely take that player? By having our Live Draft Results page called up (or a printout handy), that’s how. Knowing the biases and preferences of each of your league mates is ideal, too, but you can never know what your fellow drafters are thinking. And let’s be honest, when we’re not sure, 90 percent of us pick safe. And picking “safe” means following the mainstream opinion. And the “mainstream opinion” is these live draft results because they show you exactly where players are being drafted in ESPN standard leagues, thus giving you a massive sample size to work with.

With that, here are the top 50 picks according to our Live Draft Results. The first number in parentheses is their average selection, and the second number is how much that average spot has changed in the past seven days, as of Wednesday. I’ll add in a comment after each round.

Live Draft Results: Top 50

Round 1
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Min (1.5, 0)
2. Michael Turner, RB, Atl (3.0, 0)
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jac (4.5, -0.2)
4. Matt Forte, RB, Chi (5.9, -0.5)
5. Steven Jackson, RB, StL (7.9, -0.4)
6. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SD (8.2, -0.2)
7. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari (8.5, 0)
8. Chris Johnson, RB, Ten (8.8, -0.6)
9. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car (10.0, -0.2)
10. Drew Brees, QB, NO (10.1, +0.7)
Observation: Look at Brees slip into the first round, and Tom Brady isn’t far behind. Don’t get us wrong; we like both quarterbacks. But because of the depth at QB, those two fell to 19th and 17th, respectively, in our most recent mock draft.

Round 2
11. Tom Brady, QB, NE (11.4, +1.9)
12. Andre Johnson, WR, Hou (13.5, -0.5)
13. Frank Gore, RB, SF (13.7, -0.4)
14. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG (15.0, 0)
15. Randy Moss, WR, NE (15.2, +0.6)
16. Calvin Johnson, WR, Det (17.3, -0.3)
17. Steve Slaton, RB, Hou (17.3, -0.7)
18. Peyton Manning, QB, Ind (17.4, +0.3)
19. Clinton Portis, RB, Was (20.6, -0.7)
20. Brian Westbrook, RB, Phi (21.7, +0.2)
Observation: It should say something about the state of fantasy football — namely, the popularity of multi-back offenses — that only half of the picks here are running backs.

Round 3
21. Steve Smith, WR, Car (21.9, 0)
22. Marion Barber, RB, Dal (21.9, -0.4)
23. Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind (24.5, -0.2)
24. Greg Jennings, WR, GB (24.6, +0.2)
25. Roddy White, WR, Atl (28.2, 0)
26. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ari (28.9, +0.2)
27. Terrell Owens, WR, Buf (29.6, -0.8)
28. Ronnie Brown, RB, Mia (31.2, -0.8)
29. Kevin Smith, RB, Det (31.7, -0.9)
30. Kurt Warner, QB, Ari (32.9, +0.8)
Observation: Kaboom! There go the wide receivers, with six of the first seven picks of this round. Are you taking notes here? That said, those late-round backs are still pretty good. So the lesson is, if you take a wide receiver or quarterback in the first two rounds, you still can get a viable No. 1 RB.

Round 4
31. Marques Colston, WR, NO (34.4, -0.3)
32. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO (34.7, +5.8)
33. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB (35.1, +1.3)
34. Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ (36.5, -1.8)
35. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC (36.9, -0.8)
36. Ryan Grant, RB, GB (37.5, -0.5)
37. Philip Rivers, QB, SD (39.2, +0.3)
38. Wes Welker, WR, NE (39.7, -0.2)
39. Brandon Marshall, WR, Den (41.4, -0.5)
40. Darren McFadden, RB, Oak (42.4, +3.8)
Observation: The “upside round,” as I like to call it. All of these players either have the capability to produce like a top-20 pick — or already have done so.

Round 5
41. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl (43.9, 0)
42. Roy E. Williams, WR, Dal (44, -0.7)
43. Tony Romo, QB, Dal (44.1, +0.8)
44. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Sea (44.4, 0)
45. Jason Witten, TE, Dal (45.3, 0)
46. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buf (46.5, -4.9)
47. Matt Ryan, QB, Atl (49.7, +0.2)
48. Antonio Gates, TE, SD (50.0, 0)
49. Joseph Addai, RB, Ind (52.4, +1.6)
50. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cle (52.7, -0.9)

by Brendan Roberts, ESPN

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